Citi prevede per BofA (che comunicherà i dati il 20 gennaio) una perdita di circa 3,6 miliardi.
Mentre per Citi (che comunicherà i dati il 22 gennaio) è prevista, salvo sorprese, una perdita di circa 10 miliardi.
Tuesday, 13 January 2009
I conti di BofA e Citi
Sta per arrivare il momento in cui le banche americane comunicano ai mercati i dati contabili di periodo.
Monday, 12 January 2009
Commerzbank/Dresdner
Come il tempo cambia le cose.
Biggest German Bailout Stands Now At € 18.3 Billion & Counting...
Quattro mesi fa Commerzbank annunciava al mercato l'acqusizione di Dresdner. Ora l'acquisizione è via di completamento grazie a sussidi statali concessi a Commerzbank per circa 18 miliardi.
Rileggere la presentazione dell'operazione pubblicata nel mese di settembre lascia un po' stupiti (soprattutto pagina 25).
Wednesday, 7 January 2009
Continuano le difficoltà per i titoli di stato
Da FT.com
«Investors shunned one of the most liquid and safest assets in the world on Wednesday as a German bond auction failed in a warning for governments seeking to raise record amounts of debt to stimulate their slowing economies. It is the first eurozone bond auction of the year and an ominous sign of potential trouble ahead for governments around the world, with an estimated $3,000bn expected to be issued in sovereign debt this year — three times more than in 2008.
The auction of 10-year bonds failed to attract enough bids to reach the €6bn the government wanted to raise. Although a number of German bond auctions failed last year, it was almost unheard of before the credit crisis.
Meyrick Chapman, a fixed-income strategist at UBS, said: “When a German bond auction fails, then that does suggest there is trouble ahead for governments wanting to raise money in the debt markets.
“There was certainly a supply/demand imbalance because of the large amount of issuance in the last quarter of 2008 and the large amount due in the coming months. Before the financial crisis, German bond auctions just did not fail».
Da FT Alphaville
«In fact, the timing of this failed bond auction is far from ideal. US Treasuries have been in under pressure in recent days partly because a glut of new issuance is about to hit the market. A total of $166bn in fact, this week.
All of which may explain why the yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose on Wednesday, in spite of dismal US job numbers rekindling deflation fears elsewhere. For the record, the yield on the 10-year note is currently above 2.5%, against 2.46% late on Tuesday.
Perhaps the bond bubble is starting to deflate.
For a more in-depth take on the bond market bubble, this morning’s analysis piece in the FT, Onerous issuance, is well worth a read».
«Investors shunned one of the most liquid and safest assets in the world on Wednesday as a German bond auction failed in a warning for governments seeking to raise record amounts of debt to stimulate their slowing economies. It is the first eurozone bond auction of the year and an ominous sign of potential trouble ahead for governments around the world, with an estimated $3,000bn expected to be issued in sovereign debt this year — three times more than in 2008.
The auction of 10-year bonds failed to attract enough bids to reach the €6bn the government wanted to raise. Although a number of German bond auctions failed last year, it was almost unheard of before the credit crisis.
Meyrick Chapman, a fixed-income strategist at UBS, said: “When a German bond auction fails, then that does suggest there is trouble ahead for governments wanting to raise money in the debt markets.
“There was certainly a supply/demand imbalance because of the large amount of issuance in the last quarter of 2008 and the large amount due in the coming months. Before the financial crisis, German bond auctions just did not fail».
Da FT Alphaville
«In fact, the timing of this failed bond auction is far from ideal. US Treasuries have been in under pressure in recent days partly because a glut of new issuance is about to hit the market. A total of $166bn in fact, this week.
All of which may explain why the yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose on Wednesday, in spite of dismal US job numbers rekindling deflation fears elsewhere. For the record, the yield on the 10-year note is currently above 2.5%, against 2.46% late on Tuesday.
Perhaps the bond bubble is starting to deflate.
For a more in-depth take on the bond market bubble, this morning’s analysis piece in the FT, Onerous issuance, is well worth a read».
Madoff e le società di revisione
A quanto pare PricewaterhouseCoopers, Ernst & Young e KPMG saranno a breve poste sotto accusa per non aver saputo scovare e svelare la gigantesca truffa orchestrata da Bernie Madoff.
Su Naked Short è pubblicata una interessante discussione sul tema e una analisi degli standard che debbono essere seguiti per effettuare la revisione degli hedge funds.
Tuesday, 6 January 2009
Alcoa
Alcoa Inc. late Tuesday said it plans to cut 13% of its global workforce, sell four business units, cut output, freeze salaries and hiring efforts. The Pittsburgh-based aluminum giant said it is taking the steps to conserve cash in the current economic downturn. The meausures will result in a fourth-quarter charge of $900 million to $950 million after tax, or $1.13 to $1.19 a share.
MarketWatch
MarketWatch
La FED rischia la propria indipendenza?
«John Taylor, who was under secretary of treasury for international affairs from 2001 to 2005, said the explosive growth of the Fed's balance sheet since September was "unbelievable."
"This doesn't really seem like quantitative easing in the sense of finding a growth rate in the money supply," he told a panel discussion during the annual meeting of the American Economics Association.
"What you are looking at now is really being determined by other considerations. How much should we buy of mortgage-backed securities? How much should we loan to foreign central banks? This is really more like an industrial policy," he said.
The Fed's balance sheet has more than doubled in size to over $1.2 trillion in recent months as it has tried to shield the U.S. economy from the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression by supporting key credit markets.
This has included direct purchases of mortgage-backed bonds by the Fed and support for top-rated non-financial borrowers in the crucial commercial paper market, as well as hundreds of billions of dollars lent to banks on the basis of collateral.
"If you have a situation where the Fed is borrowing to invest in all these sectors it seems to me you have a huge governance issue...that demands a lot of thought," Taylor said.
Taylor said the U.S. Congress has a legitimate right to demand a say in who the Fed lends money to. The outcome would be "radical reform" that would risk monetary policy independence, he said».
Reuters UK
"This doesn't really seem like quantitative easing in the sense of finding a growth rate in the money supply," he told a panel discussion during the annual meeting of the American Economics Association.
"What you are looking at now is really being determined by other considerations. How much should we buy of mortgage-backed securities? How much should we loan to foreign central banks? This is really more like an industrial policy," he said.
The Fed's balance sheet has more than doubled in size to over $1.2 trillion in recent months as it has tried to shield the U.S. economy from the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression by supporting key credit markets.
This has included direct purchases of mortgage-backed bonds by the Fed and support for top-rated non-financial borrowers in the crucial commercial paper market, as well as hundreds of billions of dollars lent to banks on the basis of collateral.
"If you have a situation where the Fed is borrowing to invest in all these sectors it seems to me you have a huge governance issue...that demands a lot of thought," Taylor said.
Taylor said the U.S. Congress has a legitimate right to demand a say in who the Fed lends money to. The outcome would be "radical reform" that would risk monetary policy independence, he said».
Reuters UK
La prossima Islanda
Iceland was the biggest emerging market causality of 2008, but could another country run into similar problems in 2009? Arnab Das from Dresdner Kleinwort considers the outlook.
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