Qualcuno uscirà dall'Euro?

Secondo FT le probabilità che qualche Paese esca dall'area Euro non sono così remote come si potrebbe pensare.

«The market fears the Greeks, even when bearing gifts. It is also scared about the Irish and the Spanish.

Greece has always been treated as a peripheral eurozone member, not only in geography. Even before last year's civil unrest, its bonds traded at a significantly higher yield than those of Germany - showing a higher perceived default risk.

The market is nervous about other nations on the eurozone's periphery, notably Ireland and Spain, which grew overextended during the credit bubble.

A eurozone country defaulting and leaving the euro is close to an unthinkable event. But Friday's news from Standard & Poor's that Greece and Ireland were on review for a possible downgrade, followed yesterday by Spain, left many thinking the unthinkable.

The spread of Greek bonds over German bunds is 2.32 percentage points, almost 10 times its level of two years ago. Spanish spreads yesterday rose above 90 for the first time. An Intrade prediction market future puts the odds on a current eurozone member leaving the euro by the end of next year at about 30 per cent.

The euro dropped more than 1 per cent against the dollar within minutes of the Spanish news, and is down 9.8 per cent in the last few weeks.

A crisis over Greece might be the euro's ultimate "stress test" (to borrow a phrase from Daniel Katzive of Credit Suisse). If the eurozone could find a way to deal with a default, that might confirm the euro's status as the world's next reserve currency.

But if the eurozone could not work out a solution, and a country exited, any such ambition would be over.

The dollar-euro exchange rate affects many other assets.

Now that fears are in the open that Greece (or another peripheral country) could be the Trojan horse that breaks up the euro, any news on this front could shake many other markets».

The short view